Green Energy WA

Expectations cause a lot of problems — without expectations, we couldn’t be disappointed. However, it’s impractical not to have any expectations. So, the important thing is really just not to tie your happiness to your expectations too much. Work hard, be good, but also be flexible when it comes to the results. So, with that said, here are some expectations for solar energy in 2012 — hopefully, the good ones will come true (and you know that we’ll be doing what we can to help them along), but expectations are expectations, and only that.

1. Solar costs will continue to drop. It’s expected that solar costs haven’t hit their lowest point yet and that increasing deployment combined with technological improvements will keep the prices falling in 2012. That means solar hitting grid parity in even more places, even without subsidies that include their tremendous health and environmental savings.

2. Solar companies will merge, collapse, and be bought out. Competition is increasing in the solar industry. That doesn’t mean the industry is failing, as some would like to contend, but that it is maturing. The result, however, is that many companies will have to go. I think 2012 will be a year full of solar mergers, buy-outs, and even collapses. (We’ll be getting ready for the wonderful misinformation campaigns coming out of certain industries, media outlets, and political campaigns as that happens.)

3. Solar will continue to boom on rooftops and elsewhere in the U.S. Solar leasing, group purchasing and discount options, and good old solar incentives will continue to put record amounts of solar power on people’s homes and businesses in 2012. Additionally, huge utility-scale solar projects will keep moving forward and breaking new ground. Dropping solar costs, innovative technologies, and innovative business models make the clean energy option increasingly attractive, in numerous shapes and forms.

4. Attacks on the solar industry will get stronger. With solar’s increasing importance and growth, those in the fossil fuel industry or threatened by it will likely increase their attacks on the budding industry, I presume. Solyndra was just the start. How they will do this when solar remains one of the most popular things in the country (with about 95% of Americans in favor of government support for it and increasing deployment) remains to be seen.

5. More feed-in tariffs will drive fast installation of rooftop solar. In North America and around the world, I think we’ll see more governments moving forward with feed-in tariff policies to support solar. Why? Well, simply put, it’s been the most effective policy for driving solar power installation around the world.

6. PACE comeback. I think we’re finally going to see property-assessed clean energy (PACE) financing come back in the U.S. PACE financing was having tremendous success (with no harm to anyone) before Fannie and Freddie Mac inadvertently shut it down. It’s got a strong following of supporters and is a common-sense financing option that has no reason to be sitting on the sidelines.

7. China (& India?) to knock our socks off. China’s solar

ambitions have increased dramatically in the last year (more than once). It doesn’t take China long to act and I think we’re going to see tremendous implementation in 2012. India’s future doesn’t seem as certain, but it hastremendous solar power goals as well, solar is now cheaper than diesel there, and many are projecting that it will become a big solar player soon, perhaps in 2012.

“Global solar photovoltaic (PV) module shipments are forecast to grow from an estimated 22.7 GW in 2011 to 43.8 GW in 2015 according to IDC Energy Insights’ Worldwide Quarterly Photovoltaic Module Tracker,” IDC Energy Insights reports. “At the same time that module prices are declining at a record-setting pace, large markets like China and India have doubled down on future solar plans and adopted extremely aggressive targets.”

“According to IDC Energy Insights most recent PV Module forecast, Asia/Pacific (including Japan) will grow from 22.9% of global module shipments in 2011 to 49.3% in 2015. Europe, which is expected to receive 66.4% of PV shipments in 2011, will decline to just 38.7% in 2015 (see chart below).”

Any other thoughts on what 2012 will bring? I did leave some notable topics out, as I’m not sure what to expect from them. Those include the solar trade dispute between U.S. & German solar companies and China, and solar policies in the UK and other European countries.

Source: Clean Technica (http://s.tt/1547u)

$200m Renewable Energy Venture Capital Fund launched

The Federal Government has recently announced that Southern Cross Venture Partners has been appointed fund manager of the $200 million Renewable Energy Venture Capital Fund.

Commencing in 2012, the fund, part of the Federal Government’s Clean Energy Future plan, will be Australia’s largest renewable energy venture capital fund, making available capital to support renewable energy companies.

The fund will assist high-potential Australian renewable energy start-up companies by making critical, early-stage equity investments.

Department of Resources, Energy and Tourism Minister Martin Ferguson said: “While Australia has many innovative companies developing renewable energy technologies early-stage companies with a limited operating history have found it difficult to source venture capital.

“This fund will provide capital finance and active management to help promising Australian renewable energy companies achieve commercial

via $200m Renewable Energy Venture Capital Fund launched — EcoGeneration — The magazine for Australia’s clean energy industry.

UK biomass is at a “tipping point” and set to rival wind and solar power over the coming years if the trend of banks gradually loosening their purse strings continues.

Gerard Madden, chief executive of Irish developer Kedco, told BusinessGreen that banks are realising the opportunity biomass offers now that there is more certainty around government incentives for the technology.

FURTHER READING

Government approves giant Yorkshire biomass plant

RHI gets go-ahead, but support for large projects to be cut

“There’s been a lot of uncertainty in the biomass sector over the last few years and, in fairness, the UK government has looked to address it,” he said in an interview. “We’re at a tipping point in biomass. We’ve had wind, we’ve had solar. I think it’s biomass’ time.”

Kedco announced last week that it has secured up to £9.44m from Ulster Bank to help build a 4MW biomass electricity and heat producing plant in Newry, Northern Ireland.

The facility will be built in two 2MW chunks, and the first is due to be completed by the middle of next year. Kedco has deals in place with four local wood suppliers as well as a power purchase agreement for the electricity.

The company has also secured planning permission for a £45m gasification plant in Enfield, north London estimated to be capable of generating 12MW of electricity and 10MW of heat, and has secured a supply deal with a company processing waste wood from construction and demolition.

“We’re in a sweet spot for biomass. We operate small plants that we can position in places that have existing feedstocks,” Madden said.

Credit is still tight, but Madden insisted that the clarification of biomass subsidies as part of last month’s review of support under the Renewables Obligation and the long-delayed Renewable Heat Incentive (RHI) have made the business case more appealing to lenders.

The Renewables Obligation consultation document proposed maintaining current levels of support for biomass projects at 1.5 Renewable Obligation Certificates per megawatt hour and created two new bands of support.

A week later the RHI was finally given clearance by the EU after initially falling foul of state aid rules. However, Brussels demanded a fall in the tariff for biomass installations over 1MW of capacity from the 2.7p per kilowatt hour (kWh) agreed in March and approved by Parliament in July, to just 1p/kWh.

Barring unexpected post-consultation changes, these schemes are all but confirmed. But Madden said that, as the company’s financial modelling takes only electricity and not heat into account, the drop in support does not affect its plans.

The two support mechanisms, along with the fact that biomass heat and electricity are also included as part of eight key technologies listed in July’s Renewables Roadmap, offer investors more certainty in the biomass market than in many other sectors, he said.

Madden listed the recent approvals of large plants in Yorkshire, Anglesey and Port Talbot as examples of the current positive attitude towards biomass.

“[Raising capital] is still a challenge – let’s not under-exaggerate it. Getting the money for Newry was an achievement in itself,” he said.

“But I think the government understands the issues and is trying to address them. The government is beginning to create an environment that promises a very positive outlook for biomass.”

via UK reaching a ‘tipping point’ for biomass – 21 Nov 2011 – News from BusinessGreen.

An eco-umbrella maker and a group of holiday cottages have today become the first businesses to benefit from the government’s flagshipRenewable Heat Incentive (RHI), after installing heat pumps in their properties.

The government today announced that Sheffield-based umbrella supplier Booth Brothers and Broadgate Farm Cottages in Beverley, East Yorkshire, will both receive RHI payments of 4.5p per kWh for the next 20 years. Both businesses have installed green heating devices that qualify for the pioneering incentive scheme.

Charles Booth, chief executive ofBooth Brothers, said fitting the 24kW water source heat pump had been a natural next step for the company’s plan to create a “carbon negative” business, following the installation of two wind turbines, solar panels and a hydro-electric system to meet its electricity requirements.

The heat pump, fitted by Earthtest Energy, will power a new underfloor heating system in the company’s offices, housed in an 18th-century former corn mill.

The whole project, which also includes a new ventilation system, cost about £85,000, but Booth Brothers decided to press ahead with the investment despite delays to the launch of the RHI.

“We ‘ummed’ and ‘ahhed’ about the RHI because the technology was so new and the project was delayed when the launch of the RHI was delayed,” he said. “But in the end, we decided to do it on the basis that the RHI would come in.”

Booth’s confidence has paid off and the company now predicts the RHI payments will halve the time it takes to pay back the investment, from 15 years to just seven or eight years.

Elaine Robinson, owner of Broadgate Farm Cottages, toldBusinessGreen that she was delighted when the government launched the RHI last year as she had been looking to install three heat pumps to heat her five cottages since 2008.

She hired Kensa Engineering to fit the first 4.3kW heat pump, followed by a further two devices, for which she is also applying for RHI approval from Ofgem.

In total, the three heat pumps cost more than £40,000 and will provide lower cost hot water and heating than from traditional sources like oil. Robinson expects the RHI payments will help reduce the payback time to about 10 years.

Heat pumps were the obvious choice for her businesses because the cottages lack a mains gas supply and, as such, costs have risen in line with spiralling fossil fuel prices.

Robinson added that an efficient green heating is necessary for her holiday lets, because customers usually visit during summer and winter, when they need more cooling or heating.

However, both Booth and Robinson advised that green heating systems will not suit every business.

“Everybody’s got to consider what works for them,” said Robinson. “If you’re in something for the long term, then this works. But if your plans aren’t quite as long-term as ours, it might not be the right choice.”

Although the first two RHI payments will go to heat pumps, the government is keen to see a range of technologies benefit from the £860m pot, including biomass boilers and solar thermal panels.

According to industry estimates, the RHI scheme is widely expected to reduce payback periods on a wide range of renewable heat technologies to a point where they are competitive with conventional heating systems.

Welcoming the news, climate change minister Greg Barker said he hopes the RHI will help the UK cut its carbon emissions and boost employment.

“It’s fantastic news that the Renewable Heat Incentive has received its first two successful applicants, and this is just the start,” he said.

“Renewable heat is a largely untapped resource and an important new green industry of the future. It’ll help the UK shift away from fossil fuel, reducing carbon emissions and encouraging innovation, jobs and growth in new advanced technologies.”

The government has estimated that the RHI could increase the number of green heat installations seven-fold to about 126,000 and support the thousands of existing jobs in the heating sector.

http://www.businessgreen.com